Monday, November 20, 2006

Updating the NBA Preseason Picks

Here's a look back at my NBA Power Rankings from the first week of the season and how they've earned the spots I gave them (or else made me look very, very bad). These rankings are in order of my preaseason picks.

1. Phoenix (3-6 through Monday)
Should be ranked: First in the college polls.
What's been right: The scoring is still there (surprise, surprise). They're behind only Utah with 107.4 ppg. And Leandro Barbosa has proved doubters wrong, averaging 19.9 points and 5.9 assists.
What's been wrong: A pretty long list. Steve Nash just sat out his second straight game with back spasms, Amare Stoudemire is nowhere near the monster he needs to be for the Suns to win in June (14.1 points, 6.8 boards in just 23 minutes per game). Raja Bell and Shawn Marion have both been inconsistent, and Boris Diaw looks to have taken a few steps backwards from last year's breakout performance. They don't defend, they don't rebound and they don't really look like a team some experts (myself very not included there) picked to win it all.

2. San Antonio (8-2)
Should be ranked: Second (to Utah).
What's been right: Tim Duncan has been great for anybody, but solid for him (22.8 points, 11.9 boards), while Tony Parker is averaging just over 20 points and has been impossible to slow in the closing minutes of games, giving the Spurs two go-to players. They're also tied with Utah for the top rebounding team.
What's been wrong: If anything, Duncan and Parker are the lone consistent threats. Manu Ginobili has been erratic, Michael Finley is quickly fading towards retirement and Bruce Bowen is a slowing defensive specialist. But having Duncan and Parker makes up for a lot.

3. Miami (4-5)
Should be ranked: In the jumbled middle, somewhere between 10-15.
What's been right: D-Wade and just about nothing else. Wade is averaging 27.2 points, 7.2 assists, 4.8 boards, 1.67 steals, and 1 block per game while averaging 40 minutes each night. His supporting cast? Aside from Udonis Haslem's double-double average, they belong in the next section.
What's been wrong: Maybe the Big Aristotle should pay Frank Thomas and rename himself the Big Hurt. Shaq has missed five of nine games for the Heat and is averaging 14 points, 7.5 boards and 1 block. Antoine Walker, Gary Payton and company have all won their rings, so nothing stands between them and a nice, easy coast into retirement. The team's behind you all the way, D-Wade. For better or for much, much worse.

4. Dallas (5-4)
Should be ranked: Winners of five straight after 0-4 start have climbed to 10th in the league. Still far from fourth.
What's been right: Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and company have upped the energy lately. After averaging 89 points over their first four games, they've scored at a more Dallas-like clip (107.4) during their win streak. Center Erick Dampier is having a nice comeback year at 9.6 points and 8 boards per game.
What's been wrong: Two of the Mavericks' suprises in last year's playoffs (and valuable backups on this year's team) are having disappointing seasons. Big man DeSagana Diop's minutes have dipped thanks to Dampier, while speedy point guard Devin Harris is averaging just 2.1 assists in 25 minutes per night.

5. Detroit (5-5)
Should be ranked: A couple spots ahead of Miami in that 10-15 range. I'll say 12. For now.
What's been right: Honestly, this team bores me now. So here's the obligatory something good -- Rip Hamilton is having a solid season offensively (23.8 ppg).
What's been wrong: Rip aside, the numbers for Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess are all below their benchmarks, Nazr Mohammed has been a major disappointment at 6.9 and 6.6 per night, and 10 players are averaging at least 13 minutes a night. Something's got to give.

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